Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Chapecoense beat CRB with a 23.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 5 (before the first match) against those on July 10 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | Relegation | 67.0% | 36.7% | −30.4 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Relegation | 37.3% | 14.1% | −23.2 |
| Tombense | Relegation | 43.9% | 63.2% | +19.4 |
| ABC | Relegation | 59.1% | 77.3% | +18.2 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 65.4% | 79.7% | +14.3 |
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 71.3% | 84.0% | +12.8 |
| Vila Nova | Champion | 25.3% | 37.5% | +12.2 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 32.7% | 20.7% | −12.0 |
| Botafogo-SP | Promotion | 22.5% | 10.6% | −11.9 |
| Guarani | Promotion | 9.4% | 20.4% | +11.0 |
