Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Guarani beat Cruzeiro with a 22.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 5 (before the first match) against those on July 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarani | Relegation | 63.5% | 34.7% | −28.8 |
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 50.0% | 24.2% | −25.7 |
| Cruzeiro | Champion | 78.3% | 54.0% | −24.3 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 30.0% | 11.9% | −18.1 |
| Vasco | Champion | 9.4% | 25.8% | +16.4 |
| CSA | Relegation | 45.3% | 61.5% | +16.2 |
| Chapecoense | Relegation | 20.3% | 34.9% | +14.5 |
| Ituano | Relegation | 22.6% | 37.1% | +14.5 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 18.6% | 33.0% | +14.4 |
| Grêmio | Promotion | 43.1% | 57.0% | +13.9 |
