Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Botafogo-SP beat Ponte Preta with a 22.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 6 (before the first match) against those on December 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSA | Promotion | 12.8% | 44.0% | +31.2 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Promotion | 63.2% | 40.0% | −23.2 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 74.8% | 55.6% | −19.2 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 46.6% | 65.2% | +18.6 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 21.0% | 4.3% | −16.7 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 58.8% | 42.7% | −16.1 |
| Guarani | Promotion | 11.6% | 25.9% | +14.3 |
| Chapecoense | Champion | 59.6% | 72.3% | +12.6 |
| Brasil de Pelotas | Relegation | 6.0% | 17.5% | +11.5 |
| Confiança | Promotion | 21.1% | 10.4% | −10.8 |
