Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Brasil de Pelotas beat Juventude with a 24.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 8 (before the first match) against those on October 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarani | Relegation | 65.5% | 36.4% | −29.1 |
| Juventude | Promotion | 38.5% | 19.5% | −19.1 |
| Brasil de Pelotas | Relegation | 29.6% | 11.5% | −18.1 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 34.2% | 51.0% | +16.8 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 38.3% | 23.1% | −15.2 |
| Botafogo-SP | Relegation | 33.7% | 48.3% | +14.6 |
| Cuiabá | Champion | 31.2% | 45.3% | +14.2 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 26.7% | 40.8% | +14.1 |
| Sampaio Corrêa | Promotion | 23.6% | 35.6% | +12.0 |
| Cuiabá | Promotion | 74.2% | 85.9% | +11.8 |
