Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 2 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Red Bull Bragantino beat Ceará with a 23.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 23 (before the first match) against those on October 13 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | Libertadores | 11.0% | 87.9% | +76.9 |
| Vasco | Libertadores | 62.2% | 3.5% | −58.8 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 30.0% | 88.6% | +58.5 |
| Goiás | Relegation | 21.9% | 71.7% | +49.8 |
| Sport | Relegation | 50.5% | 7.7% | −42.8 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 53.9% | 18.9% | −35.0 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 31.0% | 65.8% | +34.8 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 37.6% | 68.9% | +31.3 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 12.1% | 43.0% | +30.9 |
| Atletico-MG | Champion | 4.4% | 34.2% | +29.7 |
