Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Cruzeiro beat São Paulo with a 22.9% chance and Vasco beat Fluminense with a 19.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 14 (before the first match) against those on October 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | Champion | 9.7% | 94.8% | +85.0 |
| Cruzeiro | Libertadores | 18.9% | 99.5% | +80.6 |
| Athletico-PR | Relegation | 55.4% | <0.1% | −55.3 |
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 36.9% | 88.5% | +51.6 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 62.2% | 98.7% | +36.5 |
| Athletico-PR | Libertadores Second Round | 1.5% | 37.4% | +35.9 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 41.5% | 11.2% | −30.3 |
| Goiás | Relegation | 34.0% | 6.9% | −27.2 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 18.9% | 45.4% | +26.6 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores Second Round | 19.6% | 45.1% | +25.5 |
