Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Grêmio beat Botafogo with a 23.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 4 (before the first match) against those on October 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 46.4% | 64.9% | +18.5 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 31.3% | 14.2% | −17.1 |
| Athletico-PR | Libertadores Second Round | 38.9% | 51.1% | +12.2 |
| São Paulo | Relegation | 31.9% | 22.8% | −9.1 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores Second Round | 39.1% | 30.2% | −9.0 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores Second Round | 44.9% | 51.9% | +6.9 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 13.2% | 6.4% | −6.8 |
| Coritiba | Relegation | 21.8% | 27.7% | +5.9 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 11.6% | 15.4% | +3.8 |
| Santos | Libertadores Second Round | 12.5% | 8.8% | −3.6 |
