Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Criciúma beat Grêmio with a 16.4% chance, São Paulo beat Cruzeiro with a 18.7% chance, and Goiás beat Portuguesa with a 22.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 6 (before the first match) against those on October 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 64.9% | 45.3% | −19.6 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 14.2% | 33.4% | +19.2 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores Second Round | 30.2% | 45.5% | +15.3 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 6.4% | 18.6% | +12.3 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 74.1% | 63.4% | −10.7 |
| São Paulo | Relegation | 22.8% | 14.2% | −8.6 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores Second Round | 25.0% | 17.3% | −7.8 |
| Fluminense | Relegation | 4.6% | 10.6% | +6.0 |
| Goiás | Relegation | 9.9% | 5.6% | −4.3 |
| Vitória | Relegation | 2.3% | 6.5% | +4.3 |
