Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Náutico beat Ponte Preta with a 20.7% chance and Flamengo beat Coritiba with a 23.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 22 (before the first match) against those on October 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 18.4% | 46.4% | +28.0 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 24.3% | 6.4% | −18.0 |
| São Paulo | Relegation | 15.7% | 31.9% | +16.2 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 47.3% | 31.3% | −16.0 |
| Athletico-PR | Libertadores | 27.7% | 12.1% | −15.6 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 48.8% | 34.5% | −14.3 |
| Coritiba | Relegation | 8.8% | 21.8% | +13.0 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores Second Round | 15.4% | 28.2% | +12.8 |
| Cruzeiro | Champion | 82.8% | 95.5% | +12.7 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 60.0% | 72.4% | +12.4 |
