Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 1 draw and 5 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat Botafogo with a 17.0% chance and Vitória beat Athletico-PR with a 20.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 26 (before the first match) against those on September 29 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 19.4% | 38.0% | +18.6 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 49.0% | 34.8% | −14.2 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 63.4% | 74.9% | +11.5 |
| São Paulo | Relegation | 15.7% | 26.9% | +11.2 |
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 84.4% | 73.7% | −10.7 |
| Cruzeiro | Champion | 82.3% | 92.8% | +10.5 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 25.0% | 15.6% | −9.5 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores Second Round | 14.5% | 22.9% | +8.4 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 18.5% | 10.6% | −7.9 |
| Athletico-PR | Libertadores | 26.6% | 18.7% | −7.9 |
