Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Bahia beat Botafogo with a 18.5% chance and Portuguesa beat Internacional with a 20.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 20 (before the first match) against those on September 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 61.7% | 47.3% | −14.5 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 33.3% | 19.2% | −14.1 |
| Athletico-PR | Libertadores | 17.0% | 27.7% | +10.6 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 16.7% | 7.6% | −9.0 |
| Internacional | Libertadores Second Round | 22.0% | 13.3% | −8.8 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 40.4% | 48.8% | +8.4 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores Second Round | 29.3% | 37.4% | +8.1 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 52.6% | 60.0% | +7.4 |
| Botafogo | Champion | 16.4% | 9.2% | −7.2 |
| Cruzeiro | Champion | 77.0% | 82.8% | +5.8 |
