Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat Cruzeiro with a 20.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 29 (before the first match) against those on September 26 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 36.3% | 91.4% | +55.1 |
| Fluminense | Champion | 16.4% | 71.3% | +54.9 |
| Vasco | Libertadores | 53.4% | 4.8% | −48.6 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 51.2% | 12.9% | −38.3 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 50.5% | 88.6% | +38.1 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 43.5% | 7.6% | −35.9 |
| Palmeiras | Relegation | 42.2% | 76.4% | +34.3 |
| Atlético-GO | Relegation | 63.4% | 95.0% | +31.7 |
| Vasco | Champion | 29.8% | 0.5% | −29.3 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores Second Round | 25.0% | 51.9% | +26.9 |
