Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Palmeiras beat Flamengo with a 22.9% chance and Goiás beat São Paulo with a 18.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 23 (before the first match) against those on September 26 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 51.2% | 69.1% | +17.8 |
| Fluminense | Champion | 22.0% | 37.2% | +15.3 |
| Goiás | Relegation | 78.3% | 63.8% | −14.6 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 73.1% | 85.6% | +12.6 |
| Cruzeiro | Libertadores | 40.6% | 28.4% | −12.3 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 55.6% | 43.5% | −12.1 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 13.1% | 24.7% | +11.6 |
| Atlético-GO | Relegation | 64.6% | 53.1% | −11.4 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores Second Round | 34.1% | 23.7% | −10.4 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 20.7% | 11.7% | −8.9 |
