Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Vasco beat Ceará with a 24.1% chance, Athletico-PR beat Avaí with a 20.0% chance, and Cruzeiro beat Palmeiras with a 24.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 2 (before the first match) against those on September 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 47.0% | 59.0% | +12.0 |
| Fluminense | Champion | 48.0% | 36.5% | −11.6 |
| Atlético-GO | Relegation | 81.1% | 69.7% | −11.4 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 72.0% | 61.4% | −10.6 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 22.4% | 13.0% | −9.5 |
| Athletico-PR | Relegation | 15.0% | 6.2% | −8.8 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 27.5% | 36.1% | +8.5 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 12.3% | 4.8% | −7.5 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 54.0% | 61.0% | +7.0 |
| Vitória | Relegation | 18.8% | 24.9% | +6.1 |
