Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Fluminense beat Santo André with a 21.6% chance, Grêmio Barueri beat Coritiba with a 23.6% chance, and Cruzeiro beat Atletico-MG with a 22.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 8 (before the first match) against those on October 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santo André | Relegation | 65.0% | 79.0% | +14.0 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Sudamericana | 21.9% | 33.6% | +11.8 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 88.5% | 77.5% | −11.0 |
| Santos | Sudamericana | 34.7% | 24.2% | −10.5 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 38.3% | 28.5% | −9.8 |
| Grêmio | Sudamericana | 58.0% | 48.7% | −9.3 |
| Cruzeiro | Sudamericana | 45.6% | 54.5% | +8.9 |
| Atletico-MG | Sudamericana | 39.3% | 47.5% | +8.1 |
| Corinthians | Sudamericana | 33.7% | 39.7% | +6.0 |
| Coritiba | Relegation | 10.1% | 16.1% | +6.0 |
