Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Athletico-PR beat Corinthians with a 21.3% chance and Botafogo beat Goiás with a 19.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 27 (before the first match) against those on October 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 47.8% | 69.3% | +21.5 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 49.3% | 31.0% | −18.4 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 64.4% | 82.6% | +18.2 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 33.7% | 17.0% | −16.8 |
| Palmeiras | Champion | 58.6% | 74.3% | +15.7 |
| Goiás | Sudamericana | 32.3% | 46.9% | +14.6 |
| Botafogo | Relegation | 58.1% | 43.6% | −14.6 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 32.1% | 43.8% | +11.8 |
| Atletico-MG | Sudamericana | 45.8% | 34.8% | −11.0 |
| Flamengo | Sudamericana | 43.9% | 54.9% | +10.9 |
