Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 2 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Cruzeiro beat Grêmio Barueri with a 22.5% chance and Vitória beat Botafogo with a 24.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 23 (before the first match) against those on September 27 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | Relegation | 44.4% | 58.1% | +13.8 |
| Vitória | Sudamericana | 42.4% | 55.4% | +12.9 |
| Cruzeiro | Sudamericana | 18.8% | 31.2% | +12.5 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 37.4% | 49.3% | +11.9 |
| Coritiba | Relegation | 28.9% | 17.6% | −11.4 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Sudamericana | 44.9% | 34.3% | −10.6 |
| Palmeiras | Champion | 49.0% | 58.6% | +9.6 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 22.7% | 32.1% | +9.3 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 56.7% | 47.8% | −8.9 |
| Goiás | Sudamericana | 41.1% | 32.3% | −8.8 |
