Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Cruzeiro beat Santo André with a 23.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 19 (before the first match) against those on July 23 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | Relegation | 37.6% | 24.4% | −13.2 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 33.8% | 24.4% | −9.5 |
| Santo André | Sudamericana | 30.1% | 21.4% | −8.7 |
| Atletico-MG | Champion | 28.5% | 36.9% | +8.4 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 13.6% | 21.9% | +8.3 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 62.1% | 70.2% | +8.1 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 57.6% | 50.4% | −7.3 |
| Cruzeiro | Sudamericana | 13.3% | 20.4% | +7.1 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 14.9% | 21.8% | +6.9 |
| Athletico-PR | Relegation | 45.3% | 52.1% | +6.8 |
