Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Avaí beat Athletico-PR with a 24.2% chance, Goiás beat Atletico-MG with a 21.7% chance, Flamengo beat Santos with a 24.5% chance, and São Paulo beat Grêmio Barueri with a 23.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 23 (before the first match) against those on July 26 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 50.4% | 66.1% | +15.7 |
| Palmeiras | Champion | 18.2% | 32.6% | +14.5 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 70.2% | 57.5% | −12.7 |
| Athletico-PR | Relegation | 52.1% | 64.6% | +12.5 |
| Atletico-MG | Champion | 36.9% | 25.1% | −11.9 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 24.4% | 13.2% | −11.2 |
| Internacional | Libertadores | 47.8% | 38.1% | −9.7 |
| Palmeiras | Sudamericana | 29.4% | 20.1% | −9.3 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 17.1% | 26.1% | +9.0 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Libertadores | 23.6% | 15.2% | −8.4 |
