Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Paysandu beat Fortaleza with a 20.5% chance, Athletico-PR beat Coritiba with a 24.2% chance, Cruzeiro beat Atletico-MG with a 24.4% chance, and São Caetano beat Ponte Preta with a 20.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 13 (before the first match) against those on October 16 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | Relegation | 48.5% | 68.2% | +19.7 |
| Athletico-PR | Sudamericana | 42.6% | 61.8% | +19.3 |
| Cruzeiro | Sudamericana | 47.2% | 66.0% | +18.8 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 44.2% | 62.4% | +18.2 |
| Paysandu | Relegation | 77.7% | 60.0% | −17.7 |
| Ponte Preta | Sudamericana | 47.1% | 31.1% | −16.0 |
| Fortaleza | Sudamericana | 31.9% | 16.6% | −15.4 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 69.8% | 55.3% | −14.5 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 21.5% | 8.0% | −13.5 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 62.2% | 74.5% | +12.3 |
