Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 8 home wins, 1 draw and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Atletico-MG beat Flamengo with a 22.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 6 (before the first match) against those on October 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 67.5% | 45.5% | −22.0 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 35.5% | 51.4% | +15.9 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 37.6% | 53.0% | +15.4 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 54.8% | 39.5% | −15.3 |
| Fluminense | Sudamericana | 43.3% | 57.2% | +13.9 |
| Palmeiras | Sudamericana | 58.9% | 46.0% | −12.9 |
| Botafogo | Sudamericana | 38.4% | 25.6% | −12.9 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 33.1% | 21.1% | −12.0 |
| Cruzeiro | Sudamericana | 40.2% | 50.5% | +10.3 |
| Juventude | Sudamericana | 24.2% | 34.4% | +10.2 |
