Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 5 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Goiás beat Coritiba with a 24.2% chance, Athletico-PR beat Fortaleza with a 23.4% chance, Flamengo beat Brasiliense with a 23.0% chance, and Corinthians beat Fluminense with a 22.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 2 (before the first match) against those on October 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | Relegation | 58.1% | 35.5% | −22.6 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 75.2% | 54.8% | −20.4 |
| Fluminense | Sudamericana | 23.8% | 43.3% | +19.5 |
| Athletico-PR | Sudamericana | 14.8% | 30.0% | +15.1 |
| Fluminense | Champion | 20.8% | 6.4% | −14.4 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 54.4% | 67.5% | +13.1 |
| Coritiba | Sudamericana | 35.8% | 22.8% | −13.0 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 64.1% | 77.0% | +12.9 |
| Ponte Preta | Sudamericana | 37.1% | 50.0% | +12.9 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 75.0% | 62.4% | −12.6 |
