Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 3 home wins, 6 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Atletico-MG beat Brasiliense with a 22.2% chance and Fluminense beat Cruzeiro with a 24.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 28 (before the first match) against those on October 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | Champion | 18.8% | 84.4% | +65.6 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 23.2% | 86.4% | +63.2 |
| Athletico-PR | Sudamericana | 20.6% | 75.0% | +54.4 |
| Santos | Sudamericana | 32.7% | 82.3% | +49.5 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 62.1% | 13.2% | −49.0 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 12.6% | 53.4% | +40.8 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 59.4% | >99.9% | +40.6 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 83.2% | 42.7% | −40.5 |
| Paysandu | Relegation | 92.8% | 56.3% | −36.5 |
| Coritiba | Sudamericana | 41.7% | 5.2% | −36.4 |
