Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Paraná beat Cruzeiro with a 23.4% chance, Corinthians beat Ponte Preta with a 23.3% chance, and Fluminense beat Juventude with a 23.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 11 (before the first match) against those on October 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 8.1% | 61.2% | +53.1 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 37.9% | 81.7% | +43.7 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 24.0% | 66.2% | +42.2 |
| Internacional | Libertadores | 25.4% | 67.6% | +42.2 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 38.3% | 76.4% | +38.0 |
| São Caetano | Sudamericana | 42.4% | 4.6% | −37.7 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 61.0% | 96.4% | +35.5 |
| Ponte Preta | Libertadores | 36.8% | 1.3% | −35.5 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 78.3% | 44.5% | −33.7 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 18.1% | 50.1% | +32.0 |
