Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Flamengo beat Botafogo with a 18.1% chance and Corinthians beat Santos with a 21.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 28 (before the first match) against those on October 13 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Libertadores | 70.2% | 1.4% | −68.8 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 21.1% | 77.3% | +56.1 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 23.5% | 78.5% | +55.1 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 30.9% | 81.6% | +50.7 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 11.1% | 51.9% | +40.8 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 64.9% | 99.2% | +34.3 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 28.0% | 62.2% | +34.2 |
| Santos | Sudamericana | 44.4% | 77.7% | +33.4 |
| São Caetano | Sudamericana | 37.0% | 4.4% | −32.6 |
| Athletico-PR | Sudamericana | 11.7% | 42.6% | +30.8 |
