Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 3 home wins, 5 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Botafogo beat São Caetano with a 22.7% chance, Ponte Preta beat Santos with a 21.7% chance, and Paraná beat Internacional with a 20.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 24 (before the first match) against those on July 28 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Libertadores | 56.8% | 70.2% | +13.4 |
| Internacional | Libertadores | 56.1% | 43.8% | −12.3 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 41.7% | 30.6% | −11.1 |
| Paraná | Libertadores | 15.9% | 26.9% | +10.9 |
| Athletico-PR | Relegation | 39.1% | 28.4% | −10.8 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 18.7% | 28.7% | +10.1 |
| Ponte Preta | Champion | 20.3% | 30.2% | +9.8 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 55.2% | 64.9% | +9.7 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 47.6% | 57.1% | +9.5 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 21.0% | 11.6% | −9.4 |
