Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 5 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Atletico-MG beat Fortaleza with a 20.5% chance, Goiás beat Internacional with a 20.1% chance, and Vasco beat Santos with a 14.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 17 (before the first match) against those on July 21 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figueirense | Relegation | 40.1% | 55.6% | +15.5 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 61.7% | 46.9% | −14.8 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 55.0% | 42.6% | −12.4 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 45.4% | 56.9% | +11.5 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 63.3% | 52.1% | −11.2 |
| Juventude | Libertadores | 22.4% | 32.3% | +9.9 |
| Fortaleza | Sudamericana | 32.8% | 23.2% | −9.6 |
| Internacional | Libertadores | 58.1% | 48.8% | −9.3 |
| Palmeiras | Sudamericana | 24.0% | 33.2% | +9.2 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 15.9% | 24.7% | +8.8 |
