Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 5 home wins, no draws and 6 away wins. 6 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Brasiliense beat Goiás with a 14.9% chance, São Caetano beat Fluminense with a 17.8% chance, Corinthians beat Paraná with a 23.8% chance, Athletico-PR beat Atletico-MG with a 24.7% chance, Botafogo beat Coritiba with a 19.4% chance, and Fortaleza beat Palmeiras with a 18.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 10 (before the first match) against those on October 19 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | Champion | 5.3% | 78.0% | +72.7 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 27.4% | 99.3% | +71.9 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 18.8% | 78.5% | +59.7 |
| Athletico-PR | Sudamericana | 6.1% | 63.2% | +57.1 |
| Ponte Preta | Libertadores | 54.1% | 0.7% | −53.3 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 58.1% | 6.3% | −51.8 |
| Athletico-PR | Relegation | 50.9% | 0.1% | −50.7 |
| Santos | Sudamericana | 32.7% | 80.2% | +47.6 |
| Corinthians | Sudamericana | 43.8% | 0.7% | −43.1 |
| Paraná | Sudamericana | 40.8% | 77.4% | +36.7 |
