Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 6 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: São Caetano beat Corinthians with a 23.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 5 (before the first match) against those on October 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná | Sudamericana | 35.2% | 53.6% | +18.4 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 80.9% | 66.7% | −14.2 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 18.9% | 33.1% | +14.2 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 71.9% | 83.0% | +11.1 |
| Atletico-MG | Sudamericana | 27.6% | 17.0% | −10.6 |
| Corinthians | Sudamericana | 57.6% | 47.1% | −10.4 |
| São Caetano | Libertadores | 15.3% | 25.0% | +9.7 |
| Fluminense | Relegation | 45.2% | 35.6% | −9.6 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 24.9% | 15.8% | −9.1 |
| Figueirense | Sudamericana | 30.2% | 21.3% | −8.9 |
