Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Santos beat São Paulo with a 22.7% chance and Paraná beat Flamengo with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 28 (before the first match) against those on October 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | Sudamericana | 40.3% | 57.6% | +17.3 |
| Paraná | Sudamericana | 20.0% | 35.2% | +15.3 |
| Flamengo | Sudamericana | 42.8% | 27.8% | −15.0 |
| Vitória | Sudamericana | 39.0% | 26.0% | −13.0 |
| Criciúma | Libertadores | 25.3% | 14.2% | −11.1 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 61.3% | 71.9% | +10.7 |
| Atletico-MG | Sudamericana | 37.4% | 27.6% | −9.8 |
| Guarani | Sudamericana | 55.9% | 65.0% | +9.1 |
| Figueirense | Sudamericana | 39.2% | 30.2% | −8.9 |
| Cruzeiro | Champion | 82.8% | 90.8% | +8.0 |
