Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 6 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Fortaleza beat Goiás with a 18.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 21 (before the first match) against those on September 25 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | Champion | 59.0% | 77.6% | +18.6 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 45.5% | 28.7% | −16.8 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 36.2% | 50.5% | +14.2 |
| Goiás | Sudamericana | 33.7% | 21.2% | −12.5 |
| Paysandu | Sudamericana | 25.8% | 36.0% | +10.2 |
| Guarani | Sudamericana | 47.8% | 57.5% | +9.8 |
| Grêmio | Relegation | 72.0% | 81.5% | +9.5 |
| Corinthians | Sudamericana | 54.7% | 45.3% | −9.4 |
| Atletico-MG | Sudamericana | 54.2% | 45.0% | −9.1 |
| Paraná | Sudamericana | 16.8% | 25.9% | +9.1 |
