Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, no draws and 6 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Nottingham beat Newcastle with a 9.8% chance, Wolverhampton beat Brentford with a 21.0% chance, and West Ham beat Arsenal with a 15.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 24 (before the first match) against those on December 28 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham | Relegation | 44.6% | 29.0% | −15.6 |
| Arsenal | Champion | 33.5% | 19.3% | −14.2 |
| Liverpool | Champion | 30.8% | 41.3% | +10.5 |
| Manchester City | Champion | 17.8% | 27.6% | +9.7 |
| Tottenham | Champions League | 49.1% | 41.2% | −8.0 |
| Manchester City | Champions League | 78.9% | 86.5% | +7.6 |
| Luton Town | Relegation | 53.7% | 46.1% | −7.6 |
| Newcastle | Conference League | 20.0% | 13.0% | −7.0 |
| West Ham | Champions League | 4.8% | 11.8% | +7.0 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 89.1% | 82.6% | −6.5 |
