Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Burnley beat Fulham with a 10.4% chance and Luton Town beat Newcastle with a 15.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 17 (before the first match) against those on February 20 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | Champions League | 75.1% | 98.2% | +23.2 |
| Aston Villa | Champions League | 73.0% | 53.1% | −19.8 |
| Newcastle | Champions League | 19.4% | 1.3% | −18.1 |
| Manchester United | Conference League | 13.7% | 31.1% | +17.3 |
| Nottingham | Relegation | 30.5% | 13.9% | −16.6 |
| Everton | Relegation | 7.1% | 23.2% | +16.2 |
| Liverpool | Champion | 33.3% | 48.5% | +15.2 |
| Aston Villa | Champion | 15.2% | 0.4% | −14.8 |
| Manchester United | Europa League | 9.4% | 23.1% | +13.7 |
| Aston Villa | Europa League | 12.0% | 25.6% | +13.6 |
