Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Fulham beat Chelsea with a 17.3% chance, Aston Villa beat Leicester City with a 19.0% chance, and Newcastle beat West Ham with a 23.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 5 (before the first match) against those on April 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | Champions League | 44.3% | 70.4% | +26.1 |
| Liverpool | Champions League | 26.3% | 6.2% | −20.1 |
| Wolverhampton | Relegation | 37.2% | 20.7% | −16.5 |
| Leicester City | Relegation | 4.4% | 19.7% | +15.3 |
| Arsenal | Champion | 60.4% | 74.7% | +14.3 |
| Chelsea | Conference League | 15.0% | 0.9% | −14.1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Conference League | 15.1% | 26.3% | +11.2 |
| Chelsea | Europa League | 11.3% | 0.2% | −11.2 |
| Tottenham | Champions League | 37.2% | 26.1% | −11.1 |
| Chelsea | Champions League | 11.0% | <0.1% | −11.0 |
