Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Norwich City beat Everton with a 18.8% chance and Leeds United beat West Ham with a 13.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 12 (before the first match) against those on May 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | Relegation | 69.8% | 0% | −69.8 |
| Manchester United | Conference League | 18.8% | 67.8% | +49.0 |
| Leeds United | Relegation | 14.4% | 63.1% | +48.7 |
| Watford | Relegation | 53.1% | 100% | +46.9 |
| Tottenham | Europa League | 17.8% | 50.5% | +32.7 |
| Arsenal | Europa League | 21.0% | 49.4% | +28.4 |
| West Ham | Champions League | 27.9% | 0% | −27.9 |
| West Ham | Europa League | 21.9% | 0% | −21.8 |
| Tottenham | Champions League | 27.8% | 49.5% | +21.8 |
| Arsenal | Conference League | 18.1% | 0% | −18.1 |
