Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 1 draw and 6 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Brighton & Hove Albion beat Everton with a 23.8% chance, Wolverhampton beat Manchester United with a 18.2% chance, and Newcastle beat Southampton with a 17.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 30 (before the first match) against those on May 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | Relegation | 69.4% | 0% | −69.4 |
| Tottenham | Europa League | 17.0% | 74.8% | +57.8 |
| Watford | Relegation | 48.6% | 100% | +51.4 |
| Manchester United | Conference League | 18.8% | 68.6% | +49.9 |
| Leeds United | Relegation | 24.2% | 62.7% | +38.6 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 43.0% | 74.9% | +31.9 |
| Manchester United | Champions League | 28.4% | 0% | −28.4 |
| Manchester United | Europa League | 21.6% | 0% | −21.6 |
| Tottenham | Conference League | 17.8% | 0% | −17.8 |
| West Ham | Europa League | 17.5% | 0% | −17.5 |
