Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 8 home wins, 2 draws and no away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Espanyol beat Real Madrid with a 12.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 27 (before the first match) against those on October 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 49.7% | 64.6% | +14.8 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 21.4% | 31.4% | +10.0 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 63.3% | 53.6% | −9.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 9.6% | 19.1% | +9.5 |
| Levante | Relegation | 28.9% | 37.9% | +9.0 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 38.5% | 30.1% | −8.4 |
| Elche | Relegation | 35.8% | 27.5% | −8.2 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 79.8% | 71.8% | −8.1 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 75.5% | 68.6% | −6.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 31.3% | 24.4% | −6.8 |
