Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 2 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Deportivo Alavés beat Atlético Madrid with a 8.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 23 (before the first match) against those on September 27 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 64.7% | 49.7% | −14.9 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 68.5% | 57.1% | −11.4 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 54.5% | 63.3% | +8.8 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 16.8% | 9.6% | −7.1 |
| Levante | Relegation | 22.8% | 28.9% | +6.1 |
| Sevilla | Champion | 20.9% | 26.8% | +5.9 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 20.0% | 25.8% | +5.9 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 11.9% | 6.1% | −5.8 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 70.3% | 75.5% | +5.2 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 41.7% | 46.8% | +5.1 |
