Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 6 draws and no away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Deportivo Alavés beat Villarreal with a 19.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 24 (before the first match) against those on May 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | Conference League | 24.5% | 14.4% | −10.2 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 34.8% | 44.8% | +10.0 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 94.1% | 85.0% | −9.2 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 11.9% | 4.0% | −7.9 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 45.0% | 51.5% | +6.5 |
| Real Sociedad | Conference League | 37.6% | 43.4% | +5.7 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 43.4% | 38.3% | −5.1 |
| Athletic Club | Conference League | 2.6% | 7.6% | +5.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 80.8% | 77.4% | −3.4 |
