Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Elche beat Villarreal with a 24.6% chance, Levante beat Atlético Madrid with a 8.2% chance, and Rayo Vallecano beat Barcelona with a 14.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 21 (before the first match) against those on April 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | Champions League | 36.6% | 97.5% | +60.9 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 49.4% | 94.1% | +44.8 |
| Elche | Relegation | 40.8% | <0.1% | −40.8 |
| Real Betis | Champions League | 45.1% | 12.8% | −32.3 |
| Real Betis | Europa League | 15.2% | 45.0% | +29.7 |
| Granada | Relegation | 1.7% | 30.3% | +28.6 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 72.1% | >99.9% | +28.0 |
| Getafe | Relegation | 28.3% | 0.8% | −27.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 55.0% | 80.8% | +25.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Conference League | 14.0% | 37.6% | +23.7 |
