Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Deportivo Alavés beat Tenerife with a 22.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 20 (before the first match) against those on September 27 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | Relegation | 59.9% | 36.2% | −23.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 27.3% | 40.7% | +13.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 57.9% | 69.5% | +11.7 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 50.9% | 39.9% | −11.1 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 19.3% | 29.5% | +10.2 |
| Salamanca | Relegation | 10.3% | 20.3% | +10.0 |
| Real Zaragoza | Champions League | 22.0% | 31.7% | +9.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 24.3% | 15.3% | −8.9 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 9.6% | 17.8% | +8.1 |
| Tenerife | Relegation | 12.1% | 20.1% | +8.0 |
