Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Betis beat Real Madrid with a 17.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 27 (before the first match) against those on October 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extremadura | Relegation | 43.2% | 57.2% | +14.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 69.5% | 56.5% | −13.0 |
| Real Zaragoza | Champions League | 31.7% | 44.6% | +12.8 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 48.3% | 60.7% | +12.4 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 40.7% | 28.7% | −12.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 29.5% | 18.6% | −10.9 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 20.4% | 28.8% | +8.4 |
| Real Oviedo | Relegation | 17.4% | 9.0% | −8.4 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 12.7% | 21.0% | +8.3 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 39.9% | 31.7% | −8.2 |
