Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Real Betis beat Atlético Madrid with a 23.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on May 2 (before the first match) against those on May 9 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation play-off | 41.1% | 18.7% | −22.4 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 53.8% | 75.4% | +21.5 |
| Valencia | Europa League | 42.3% | 23.8% | −18.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 58.9% | 44.9% | −13.9 |
| Mallorca | Champions League | 69.7% | 83.3% | +13.5 |
| Villarreal | Relegation play-off | 54.0% | 67.2% | +13.2 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 39.1% | 51.9% | +12.8 |
| Mallorca | Europa League | 29.1% | 16.6% | −12.5 |
| Extremadura | Relegation play-off | 54.8% | 67.2% | +12.3 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 80.9% | 68.6% | −12.3 |
