Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, 2 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Tenerife beat Valencia with a 22.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 22 (before the first match) against those on January 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | Europa League | 19.9% | 11.6% | −8.2 |
| Mérida | Relegation | 32.2% | 24.2% | −8.0 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 75.2% | 67.2% | −8.0 |
| Tenerife | Relegation play-off | 32.8% | 25.6% | −7.2 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 85.9% | 79.5% | −6.4 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 10.8% | 16.7% | +6.0 |
| Valencia | Relegation play-off | 9.2% | 14.8% | +5.6 |
| Salamanca | Relegation play-off | 36.7% | 31.2% | −5.6 |
| Real Madrid | Europa League | 19.8% | 25.2% | +5.4 |
| Salamanca | Relegation | 27.3% | 22.0% | −5.3 |
