Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 2 home wins, 3 draws and 6 away wins. 5 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Barcelona beat Real Betis with a 24.3% chance, Racing Santander beat Deportivo La Coruña with a 15.6% chance, Salamanca beat Rayo Vallecano with a 22.9% chance, Valencia beat Real Oviedo with a 23.6% chance, and Tenerife beat Real Zaragoza with a 18.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 5 (before the first match) against those on October 8 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salamanca | Relegation | 64.6% | 45.6% | −19.0 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 52.6% | 69.5% | +16.9 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 23.4% | 34.1% | +10.7 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 23.4% | 34.1% | +10.7 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation play-off | 25.7% | 18.1% | −7.6 |
| Salamanca | Relegation play-off | 20.9% | 28.4% | +7.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 13.0% | 20.3% | +7.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 13.0% | 20.3% | +7.3 |
| Real Valladolid | Relegation | 18.6% | 11.5% | −7.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 23.1% | 30.1% | +6.9 |
