Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Botafogo-SP beat Novorizontino with a 16.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 25 (before the first match) against those on June 29 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 42.4% | 17.3% | −25.2 |
| Mirassol | Promotion | 54.3% | 31.9% | −22.4 |
| Novorizontino | Champion | 39.7% | 18.6% | −21.1 |
| Novorizontino | Promotion | 85.1% | 64.9% | −20.2 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 29.2% | 47.7% | +18.6 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 31.1% | 46.3% | +15.2 |
| Vila Nova | Champion | 17.7% | 31.7% | +13.9 |
| Londrina | Relegation | 54.2% | 66.1% | +11.9 |
| Ituano | Relegation | 13.1% | 24.7% | +11.5 |
| Tombense | Relegation | 57.9% | 69.2% | +11.3 |
