Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 8 home wins, 2 draws and no away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Náutico beat Ituano with a 16.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 1 (before the first match) against those on September 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | Promotion | 43.0% | 76.7% | +33.7 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 37.7% | 69.1% | +31.4 |
| Brusque | Relegation | 52.3% | 35.2% | −17.1 |
| Operário-PR | Relegation | 59.7% | 44.1% | −15.6 |
| Chapecoense | Relegation | 41.3% | 26.9% | −14.4 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 67.8% | 54.6% | −13.2 |
| CSA | Relegation | 21.0% | 34.0% | +13.1 |
| Londrina | Promotion | 36.6% | 23.9% | −12.7 |
| Sport | Promotion | 26.9% | 14.4% | −12.5 |
| Bahia | Promotion | 83.8% | 95.2% | +11.4 |
