Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 5 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Novorizontino beat Bahia with a 16.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 19 (before the first match) against those on July 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | Relegation | 49.0% | 14.5% | −34.5 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 32.8% | 63.5% | +30.7 |
| Cruzeiro | Champion | 55.7% | 78.3% | +22.6 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 58.2% | 80.4% | +22.2 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 7.8% | 30.0% | +22.2 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 39.1% | 18.6% | −20.5 |
| Tombense | Promotion | 32.9% | 15.1% | −17.8 |
| Vasco | Champion | 26.4% | 9.4% | −17.0 |
| CSA | Relegation | 31.9% | 45.3% | +13.4 |
| Vasco | Promotion | 84.2% | 71.8% | −12.4 |
