Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Londrina beat Cuiabá with a 21.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 29 (before the first match) against those on October 5 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Londrina | Relegation | 44.6% | 21.7% | −23.0 |
| São Bento | Relegation | 66.6% | 83.8% | +17.2 |
| Botafogo-SP | Promotion | 13.4% | 29.8% | +16.4 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Champion | 75.8% | 90.8% | +15.0 |
| Brasil de Pelotas | Relegation | 22.3% | 8.3% | −14.0 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 14.9% | 28.2% | +13.4 |
| Paraná | Promotion | 7.9% | 20.1% | +12.2 |
| Coritiba | Promotion | 26.2% | 16.1% | −10.0 |
| Atlético-GO | Promotion | 86.1% | 76.0% | −10.0 |
| CRB | Promotion | 27.2% | 17.9% | −9.2 |
