Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Criciúma beat Botafogo-SP with a 23.7% chance and Coritiba beat América-MG with a 20.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 25 (before the first match) against those on September 29 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciúma | Relegation | 72.6% | 47.1% | −25.5 |
| Vila Nova | Relegation | 50.2% | 29.2% | −21.0 |
| Coritiba | Promotion | 7.9% | 26.2% | +18.3 |
| Atlético-GO | Promotion | 69.8% | 86.1% | +16.3 |
| Sport | Promotion | 65.9% | 81.6% | +15.6 |
| Vitória | Relegation | 48.2% | 63.7% | +15.6 |
| América-MG | Promotion | 29.1% | 14.9% | −14.3 |
| Operário-PR | Promotion | 26.9% | 14.3% | −12.6 |
| Cuiabá | Promotion | 27.7% | 15.5% | −12.1 |
| Botafogo-SP | Promotion | 25.2% | 13.4% | −11.8 |
